Pune Scientists Develop Early Warning System To Predict Dengue Outbreaks Amid Climate Change
Pune Scientists Develop Early Warning System To Predict Dengue Outbreaks Amid Climate Change
Pune: A groundbreaking study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has unveiled an early warning system that can predict dengue outbreaks over two months in advance. Led by climate scientist Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll and Sophia Yacob, the study highlights the intricate links between climate change and the spread of dengue in Pune, a known hotspot for the mosquito-borne disease.
Climate’s Role in Dengue Surge
Published in Scientific Reports, the study reveals how rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and high humidity create optimal conditions for dengue outbreaks. It shows that warm temperatures above 27°C, moderate rainfall, and humidity levels of 60-78% during the monsoon season significantly increase dengue incidences. Conversely, heavy rainfall exceeding 150mm in a week reduces mosquito breeding by flushing out eggs and larvae.
Without timely interventions, rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns could increase dengue-related deaths in India by 13% by 2030 and up to 40% by 2050, researchers warned.
Advanced Forecasting for Outbreak Management
The newly developed dengue prediction model incorporates artificial intelligence and machine learning, utilizing observed climate patterns such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity. The system provides health authorities with over two months of lead time to prepare, potentially reducing cases and fatalities.
“This collaboration highlights the importance of integrating climate science and health data to address complex challenges,” said Sujata Saunik, Maharashtra Chief Secretary. Dr. Koll emphasized that cooperation from health departments could lead to city-specific early warning systems for diseases like dengue, malaria, and chikungunya.
Implications for Pune
The study projects a 13% increase in dengue mortalities in Pune by 2030 under current climate scenarios, with deaths potentially doubling by 2100 if fossil fuel emissions remain unchecked. As temperatures rise by 1.2–3.5°C by the century’s end, warmer days will likely dominate dengue transmission trends.
Enhanced forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) combined with IITM’s model could significantly improve dengue preparedness and save lives, officials said.
