Weather Update: Warmer November Expected Across India; Heavy Rain Forecast For Central And Southern Regions
Pune Experiences Fluctuating Weather: IMD Forecasts Rise in Temperatures with Daytime Heat and Cooler Nights
Despite the onset of winter, temperatures across Maharashtra and the rest of India are likely to remain above average throughout November, according to Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This forecast, issued on November 1, indicates that expected winter chills will be delayed due to a low-pressure system forming along the Tamil Nadu coast, which is likely to bring above-average rainfall to central and southern India.
The IMD predicts that La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean may activate by the end of December, potentially leading to cooler weather in early 2024. For now, however, maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be two to five degrees Celsius higher than usual across India, with northern and central regions experiencing mild conditions due to the lack of westerly disturbances that usually bring cooler air from the Himalayas.
In the second week of November, a low-pressure system is expected to form near the Tamil Nadu coast and may move toward eastern Andhra Pradesh. This system will likely bring heavy rain to central and southern India, creating overcast conditions that could increase temperatures across these regions.
Historically, November sees an average rainfall of 118.69 mm, but this year, precipitation may reach 123% of the usual average. Due to cloud cover, temperatures are anticipated to rise even further, keeping November warmer than usual across India.
October’s Warmer-than-Average Conditions:
October also recorded above-average temperatures across India. While the usual maximum temperature in October is 31.77°C, this year it reached 31.99°C, and minimum temperatures rose to 21.85°C compared to the usual 20.01°C. IMD records since 1901 show that October 2024 recorded one of the highest minimum temperatures on record.
Outlook for Winter:
If La Niña becomes active in December, colder temperatures may set in by January, with the possibility of a typical winter chill arriving in January and February. Dr. Mohapatra highlighted that both La Niña and westerly disturbances are essential for a strong winter season, which could unfold early in 2024 if these conditions align.
