Festive Spending Boom! India Set for ₹12–14 Lakh Crore Shopping Surge This Season

GST rate cuts, wedding rush, and festive demand expected to fuel record consumption across sectors.

India’s festive season in 2025 is shaping up to be one of the biggest spending periods ever, with nationwide purchases projected to reach between ₹12 lakh crore and ₹14 lakh crore, according to a report by the Bank of Baroda. The surge follows the recent GST rate cuts on personal and essential items, which have boosted consumer confidence and spending power.

The report highlights that the largest share of this spending—₹4.5 to ₹5 lakh crore—will come from wedding-related expenses, as nearly 10 million weddings take place in India each year, with about 60% scheduled between October and December. Alongside weddings, spending on clothing, electronics, automobiles, jewelry, and gifting items is expected to rise sharply.

Industries like FMCG, quick-service restaurants (QSRs), and travel (aviation and railways) are also set to benefit from this consumption boom. With both festive and wedding demand converging, India’s retail and services sectors are witnessing a powerful rebound.

GST collections reflect strong momentum
India’s GST collections rose 9.1% year-on-year to ₹1.89 lakh crore in September 2025, marking the ninth consecutive month above ₹1.8 lakh crore. The growth was driven by strong domestic demand, festive-season stocking, and a 40% jump in refunds, which indicates smoother processing for exporters and domestic manufacturers.

However, the report notes that the impact of the GST rate rationalisation (effective September 22) will be fully visible only in October’s figures.

Key emerging trends:

• Resilient domestic demand: Despite expectations of slower consumption ahead of rate cuts, GST collections remained robust.
• Rising refunds: Exporters and manufacturers have benefited from faster refunds, especially in sectors facing duty inversion.
• Regional divergence: Smaller states like Jammu & Kashmir, Meghalaya, and Bihar recorded strong growth, while major industrial states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka showed more moderate expansion.
• Festive stocking: Increased import-linked GST suggests active pre-festive inventory buildup by retailers and e-commerce platforms.

Looking ahead:
October’s GST data will offer a clearer picture of:

• The impact of GST rate cuts,
• Early festive-season buying patterns, and
• Sectoral shifts in consumer spending.

For now, average GST inflows for FY26 are hovering near ₹2 lakh crore per month, and economists expect double-digit growth in collections through the festive quarter, reinforcing India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available economic data. Readers are advised to verify market information before making financial or business decisions.