Monsoon 2026: IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall Across Most Of Maharashtra, Heatwave Risk Remains
Monsoon 2026: IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall Across Most Of Maharashtra, Heatwave Risk Remains
India is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with Maharashtra expected to witness rainfall deficits in several regions even as isolated areas may receive normal to above-normal showers.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a below-normal southwest monsoon for the country in 2026, raising concerns for several states, including Maharashtra. According to the latest forecast, seasonal rainfall across India is expected to be around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating below-normal rainfall during the June to September monsoon season.
For Maharashtra, the outlook suggests that most parts of the state could receive below-normal rainfall, although some isolated pockets may experience normal to above-normal precipitation. The forecast comes at a crucial time for farmers, water resource planners and local administrations preparing for the rainy season.
The IMD’s seasonal outlook indicates that below-normal rainfall is likely across large parts of Central India and the South Peninsular region, which includes Maharashtra. Rainfall in the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), covering many rain-fed agricultural regions of the country, is also expected to remain below normal.
June, which marks the onset phase of the southwest monsoon, is expected to receive below-normal rainfall across much of the country. This could affect the pace of monsoon progress and early agricultural activities in several districts.
IMD releases Updated Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) May 29, 2026
a) The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over country as a whole is likely to be 90% of Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, indicating that below normal rainfall over the… pic.twitter.com/KGtlls1G37
While Central and Peninsular India are likely to see rainfall deficits, the IMD forecast suggests that Northeast India may receive normal rainfall during the season. Certain areas in Northwest India and parts of eastern India are also expected to record normal to above-normal rainfall.
Meteorologists have noted that rainfall distribution could vary significantly between regions, meaning local weather conditions may differ from the broader seasonal outlook.
One of the key factors influencing the forecast is the likely development of El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
El Niño is often associated with weaker monsoon performance over India and can influence rainfall distribution across several regions. According to the latest climate model assessments, current neutral ENSO conditions are gradually transitioning towards El Niño, which is likely to develop during the monsoon months.
At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to continue throughout the season, according to the latest forecast.
Alongside the rainfall outlook, the IMD has warned that above-normal heatwave days are likely during June in several parts of the country. Isolated regions of Maharashtra are also expected to experience higher-than-normal heatwave conditions.
Authorities have cautioned that prolonged heat can affect public health, water availability, electricity demand and essential services. Elderly people, children, outdoor workers and individuals with existing health conditions are considered particularly vulnerable during extreme heat events.
The IMD has advised state governments and local administrations to strengthen preparedness measures, including ensuring access to drinking water, maintaining emergency response systems and enhancing public health monitoring.
Officials have also urged citizens to stay updated with weather advisories, avoid prolonged exposure to extreme heat during peak afternoon hours and take adequate precautions during heatwave conditions.
The department is expected to release its July rainfall forecast in the last week of June, which will provide a clearer picture of how the monsoon season may progress across different parts of the country.
Disclaimer: Weather forecasts are subject to change based on evolving atmospheric conditions. Readers are advised to follow official IMD updates for the latest information.
