El Niño Threat Looms Large: Drought Risk For Maharashtra, 11 Other States As Rainfall Deficit Deepens
El Niño Threat Looms Large: Drought Risk For Maharashtra, 11 Other States As Rainfall Deficit Deepens
New Delhi, June 29: Concerns over the southwest monsoon have intensified as experts warn that the impact of El Niño could persist until November, raising the risk of drought across Maharashtra and 11 other states. Weather agencies have cautioned that more than 300 districts could face rainfall shortages, with India already recording a significant monsoon deficit this June.
The delayed arrival of widespread monsoon showers has left farmers anxious across the country. According to the latest rainfall data, India received only 80.4 mm of rainfall between June 1 and June 27, against the normal 141.8 mm, resulting in a 43 per cent rainfall deficit. Several regions, including parts of Maharashtra, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, have witnessed below-normal rainfall.
El Niño May Continue Until November
Climate experts have warned that the El Niño phenomenon has strengthened and may continue until November, prolonging high temperatures and affecting the monsoon season. The prolonged dry spell has already raised concerns over agriculture and water availability.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has stated that warming in the Pacific Ocean is likely to keep El Niño conditions active, with an 80 per cent probability of strong influence between June and August and over a 90 per cent chance of its persistence until November. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has described the situation as a serious global warning.
Government on Alert Over Drought Risk
The Central Government has initiated preparedness measures in anticipation of possible drought conditions. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said initial assessments had suggested that around 111 districts could be affected, but updated scientific data now indicates that more than 300 districts across 12 states, including Maharashtra, may face direct impacts. He added that state governments have already been alerted.
Skymet Sees Possible Relief
Private weather agency Skymet said the current neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could offer some relief if it strengthens in the coming months. According to the agency, a positive IOD may help offset the impact of El Niño and improve monsoon conditions, although its intensity would need to increase significantly.
Skymet said there is a possibility that the IOD could become active between August and September, which may support rainfall. However, meteorologists noted that it is too early to determine whether this will be sufficient to reduce the effects of El Niño, and the situation will continue to be closely monitored.
