Stock Market Alert: ‘Black Monday’ Fears Loom Over Dalal Street, Crucial Week Ahead for Sensex and Nifty

Indian stock markets face a high-volatility week from February 16 as global cues, IT sector weakness, FII activity, RBI and US Fed minutes, and gold price movements are set to impact Sensex and Nifty trends.

Dalal Street on Edge as Markets Enter a निर्णायक Week

Maharashtra: The week beginning February 16 is expected to be decisive for the Indian stock market, with investors bracing for heightened volatility amid strong global and domestic triggers. After a sharp sell-off at the end of last week, market sentiment remains cautious, and analysts warn that the next five trading sessions could shape the near-term direction of Dalal Street.

On Friday, February 13, benchmark indices witnessed heavy losses due to weak global cues and rising concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on the global economy. The BSE Sensex plunged 1,048 points (1.25%) to close at 82,626.76, while the NSE Nifty 50 fell 336 points (1.30%) to settle at 25,471.10.

Market experts say investors should closely track five key factors that are likely to drive market movements this week:

1. IT Sector Under Pressure

The IT sector remains the weakest link, having declined by over 8% last week. Heavy selling was seen in major IT stocks such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro.
Fears that generative and agentic AI technologies could reduce demand for traditional outsourcing services have made investors cautious, and movements in IT stocks are expected to significantly influence overall market sentiment.

2. FII Activity in Focus

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will play a crucial role in determining market direction. Despite being net buyers in several February sessions, data up to February 13 shows a net equity outflow of ₹1,374 crore for the month.
Although sentiments improved slightly after the India-US trade developments, the stance of foreign investors in the coming days will be a key trend-setter for the market.

3. Gold, Silver and Dollar Movements

Fluctuations in gold and silver prices may have an indirect impact on equity markets. After recent sharp declines, precious metals have shown signs of stability.
With the US dollar relatively steady and US real yields trading in a narrow range, bullion markets are currently under limited pressure. Analysts say capital rotation between equities and bullion will be closely watched by investors.

4. RBI Policy Signals

On February 20, the Reserve Bank of India will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting.
Markets will track cues on inflation outlook, liquidity conditions, and future interest rate policy, which could directly impact banking and financial stocks.

5. US Fed Minutes and GDP Data

On February 18, minutes of the latest policy meeting of the Federal Reserve will be released, along with key US GDP data for the October–December quarter.
These developments are expected to provide clarity on US interest rate direction and the global policy environment, which could influence not only Indian markets but global equities as well.

Market Outlook

With global uncertainty, IT sector weakness, central bank cues, and foreign fund flows all converging, experts warn that the coming week could be highly volatile for Indian equities.
Investors are advised to remain cautious, track global developments closely, and avoid impulsive trading decisions as Dalal Street navigates what many are calling a potential “Black Monday” phase and a critical five-day test for the market.

Disclaimer:
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