Weather Update: Monsoon Likely To Hit Kerala By May 27, Four Days Ahead Of Schedule: IMD
Weather Update: Monsoon Likely To Hit Kerala By May 27, Four Days Ahead Of Schedule: IMD
New Delhi | May 10, 2025
The Southwest Monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala around May 27 this year, four days earlier than its normal onset date of June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The early onset marks the beginning of India’s crucial rainy season, transitioning the country from the hot and dry summer.
IMD stated that satellite images already show dense cloud formations over the Andaman Sea and the Kerala coast, supporting the likelihood of early monsoon onset. In 2024, the monsoon had reached Kerala on May 30.
Monsoon rains, which typically span from June to September, are vital for India’s agriculture-based economy. Nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall is delivered during this season. About 51% of India’s cultivated land is rain-fed, contributing 40% to the country’s agricultural output. Nearly half the population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture for livelihood.
In its long-range forecast, IMD has projected ‘above normal’ rainfall this year, estimating it at 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%. Last year’s monsoon was also above normal at 108% of the LPA.
By contrast, 2023 saw a below-normal monsoon due to El Niño conditions, with rainfall at 94% of the LPA, slightly below the 96% forecast but still within the IMD’s acceptable margin.
The IMD’s monsoon forecast is based on six key predictors: minimum temperatures over northwest India, peak pre-monsoon rainfall over the southern peninsula, mean sea level pressure in the subtropical northwest Pacific, outgoing long wave radiation over the South China Sea, and zonal wind patterns in the lower and upper troposphere over the northeast Indian Ocean and Indonesia region, respectively.
Experts emphasize that consistent and moderate rainfall—rather than extreme heavy spells—is essential for stable agricultural yields and food price stability. Sufficient and timely rains can also help control inflation, particularly in the prices of rice, pulses, vegetables, and sugar.
