Bill Gates says GPT-5 will not surpass its predecessor GPT-4

By: Pune Pulse

October 28, 2023

Pune: The launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022 has been a significant development in the field of artificial intelligence, with many companies investing heavily in generative AI over the past few months.

OpenAI’s GPT series, which includes the Generative Pre-trained Transformer, has been instrumental in driving advancements in AI across various industries.

However, billionaire Bill Gates has expressed his belief that the technology may have reached a plateau. In an interview with German business newspaper Handelsblatt, Gates stated that while there are reasons to believe that GPT technology has peaked, he acknowledges that he could be mistaken. He also noted that the leap from GPT-2 to GPT-4 was remarkable in terms of benchmarking.

In his interview, Gates predicted that within the next two to five years, there will be a substantial increase in the accuracy of AI software, accompanied by a decrease in cost. Consequently, this advancement will result in the emergence of novel and dependable applications.

Notably, he also expressed his expectation of an initial halt in development. The billionaire stated that the company has reached a limit with GPT-4 and does not believe that GPT-5 will surpass its predecessor. Nevertheless, Gates also acknowledged the significant potential of AI in the short term. He emphasized that ongoing research will enhance the reliability and comprehensibility of AI. Additionally, he highlighted the immense benefits that developing nations will experience from AI, citing the example of health advice provided through smartphones.

When questioned about the cost and reliability of AI, Gates acknowledged that certain AI chips from Nvidia have a price tag of approximately $30,000 each. These chips possess a significant amount of computational power and consume a substantial amount of energy. Gates stated that training a large language model can be quite expensive, although the actual usage costs have decreased over time. Initially, the cost per query was ten cents, but it has now reduced to around three cents.

However, the expenses associated with computing power and semiconductors remain exorbitant, as mentioned in the newspaper. Furthermore, Gates expressed his belief that AI can greatly benefit the healthcare sector. He emphasized that AI has the potential to expedite the development of drugs and vaccines. Despite concerns regarding reliability, Gates envisions AI becoming an integral part of these fields.

Additionally, Gates discussed the concept of the AI black box and highlighted the importance of understanding how AI encrypts information. He acknowledged that efforts are already underway to decipher this black box. When questioned about the lack of transparency regarding AI’s inner workings, Gates acknowledged the ongoing work being done in this area. Regarding Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Gates stated that it is impossible to predict when it will be achieved. He emphasized that AGI could have a profound impact on humanity.

The Microsoft co-founder expressed his views on the potential of AI in addressing climate change. He acknowledged the advancements in climate models and emphasized the emergence of new crops capable of withstanding high temperatures. Additionally, Gates disclosed his investment in nearly 100 companies dedicated to enhancing the power grid through AI technology.