More Calories, Less Growth: How Obesity is Eating Into India’s Future
More Calories, Less Growth: How Obesity is Eating Into India’s Future
The Economic Survey makes it clear: if we don’t curb obesity now, we risk missing out on our economic potential.
Obesity extends beyond personal health concerns; it significantly impacts national prosperity. For India to maximize its demographic dividend, maintaining a healthy and productive workforce is essential.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent mention of India’s escalating obesity crisis during Mann Ki Baat serves as more than a mere health alert; it signals a serious economic warning. The statistics are indeed alarming.
India is on the brink of an economic crisis driven by escalating obesity rates. This growing concern is projected to elevate the country’s economic burden from $28.95 billion in 2019 to a staggering $838.6 billion by 2060. The Economic Survey 2024-25 emphasizes the urgency for more stringent regulations on ultra-processed foods and advocates for a holistic national strategy to combat obesity.
In 2019, the financial impact of overweight and obesity in India was estimated to be $28.95 billion, representing 1% of the country’s GDP, as reported by the Global Obesity Observatory. If the current trends continue, this amount is anticipated to increase to $81.53 billion, which would account for 1.57% of GDP. Furthermore, projections indicate that by 2060, this figure could soar to $838.6 billion, equating to 2.5% of GDP.
The Economic Survey 2023-24, cautioned that India may fail to capitalize on its demographic dividend unless the population improves its fitness levels.
“If India needs to reap the gains of its demographic dividend, it is critical that its population’s health parameters transition towards a balanced and diverse diet. Obesity is emerging as a serious concern among India’s adult population. According to National Family Health Survey 5 (NFHS-5), the percentage of men facing obesity in the age bracket 18-69 has increased to 22.9 per cent in NFHS-5 from 18.9 per cent in NFHS-4. For women, it has increased from 20.6% (NFHS-4) to 24.0% (NFHS-5),” says the survey.
The Economic Survey 2024-25 has raised concerns regarding ultra-processed foods, advocating for more stringent regulations on sugar, salt, and unhealthy fats. It recommends the implementation of warning labels on food packaging and limiting the marketing of junk food, particularly to children. There is also a call for schools, hospitals, and public areas to phase out these unhealthy options, alongside the introduction of subsidies for healthier alternatives such as millets, fruits, and vegetables.
A report from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) indicates that India’s ultra-processed food sector saw a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.37% in retail sales value between 2011 and 2021.
Data from the 2022-23 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) indicates that rural households spend about 9.6% of their food budget on processed foods, while urban households allocate roughly 10.64% for the same category.
Currently, India lacks a comprehensive national strategy to tackle obesity, despite numerous alerts regarding the issue. While there are programs aimed at improving nutrition for children and vulnerable groups, a cohesive strategy to address obesity across all segments of the population is missing. Experts warn that without prompt action, the economic consequences could become overwhelming.
