Monsoon Revival Likely Between June 12-18, Says IMD; Central and Southern India to Receive Heavy Rainfall
Pune Weather Forecast June 24–26: IMD Predicts Light to Moderate Showers, Heavy Rain in Ghats; Check Region-Wise Update
After stalling since May 29, forecast promising signs of southwest monsoon return
After an unexpected pause in the southwest monsoon’s progress since May 29, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a potential revival between June 12 and 18. This news brings much-needed hope to regions struggling with dry spells, particularly in central India, Maharashtra, and the southern peninsula.
According to IMD officials, model predictions remain mixed about the development of a monsoon-triggering weather system over the Bay of Bengal around June 12-13. “Some models suggest a system formation, others do not. We are not confident enough to include it in our official forecast yet,” said an IMD official.
Nevertheless, the extended-range forecast by the department indicates the likelihood of a monsoon revival during the June 12-18 window even without a significant system formation. Once revived, monsoon winds and rainfall activity are expected to pick up significantly in central India, parts of Maharashtra, and southern peninsular India, particularly where the monsoon has already reached.
What the Forecast Says
June 12-18 period: Widespread rainfall is expected across southern peninsula and adjoining central India, triggered by the strengthening of westerly winds and possibly an offshore trough formation near the west coast.
Rainfall outlook:
- Above normal over south peninsular India
- Normal to above normal over central India
- Below normal over northwest, east, and northeast India
The IMD also said further monsoon advancement across the country will depend on rainfall distribution and the establishment of consistent monsoon wind patterns post-revival.
Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services has expressed greater certainty regarding the formation of a monsoon system. According to them, a precursor cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the west-central Bay of Bengal by June 10, with weather activity beginning along the coastline by June 11.
Skymet’s projections show the system taking a slightly southern path, moving across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. Their estimated revival window is June 12-17, covering most of southern India.
What It Means for You
This upcoming revival is critical for farmers, urban planners, and water resource managers, especially in rain-dependent areas. The delayed monsoon had raised concerns about agricultural schedules, water reserves, and heat stress, particularly in regions like Maharashtra and Telangana.
The next week will be crucial in confirming whether the system forms as expected and how quickly it strengthens the monsoon’s reach across India.
Stay updated with official forecasts and regional alerts to prepare accordingly.
