Weather Update: Monsoon Expected to Arrive in Kerala By May 31, Indicates IMD 

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts that this year’s monsoon may arrive a day earlier than usual, landing on the mainland by May 31. This forecast significantly affects Indian farmers, food prices, and the rural economy.

According to IMD, their past forecasts about the monsoon onset have been accurate, except for one instance in 2015. However, there’s a margin of error, giving the weather office about nine days to make an accurate prediction this year.

Last year, the monsoon arrived a week later than expected on June 8. IMD’s long-range forecast for this year suggests an “above normal” monsoon, at 106% of the long-period average, with a slight margin of error.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) also anticipates the onset of La Nina, which could mean higher-than-average rainfall in India.

El Nino and La Nina are natural climate patterns that affect ocean temperatures. La Nina usually brings strong monsoons and colder winters to India.

A good monsoon is crucial for the Kharif crop, controlling inflation, and boosting the rural economy. Over half of India’s farmed area relies on rain, making the monsoon vital for agriculture.

IMD forecasts that the monsoon may advance into the south Andaman Sea and parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal around May 19, earlier than usual.

The onset of the monsoon in Kerala marks the transition from hot and dry to rainy weather across the country. Relief from the summer heat is expected as the monsoon progresses northward, usually reaching the entire country by July 15.

IMD uses a statistical model to predict the monsoon onset, considering temperature, rainfall, and wind patterns.

If specific weather conditions are met by May 10, IMD will declare the monsoon’s onset in Kerala.  IMD’s Regional Specialised Centre for Tropical Cyclones also suggests a low chance of cyclone development over the Bay of Bengal between May 17 and 23.

IMD will provide an updated forecast by the last week of May, including probabilistic forecasts for seasonal rainfall in different regions of India.

The early arrival of the monsoon brings hope for a fruitful agricultural season, but continued monitoring of weather conditions is necessary for accurate predictions.