IMD forecasts mixed weather patterns for India; Monsoon rainfall above normal, yet heatwaves persist

Staying true to its April projections, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reaffirmed on Monday its forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall across India, particularly in regions crucial for rain-fed agriculture, signalling a positive outlook for the economy. With a forecast probability of 61%, the IMD anticipates an enhanced monsoon season from June to September.

However, despite this promising outlook, northwest India is unlikely to find relief from blistering heatwaves in June. Even with a brief respite expected due to western disturbances, the IMD predicts a minimum of four to six heatwave days in the region next month. Moreover, many other parts of the country are expected to experience normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures throughout June.

This persistence of heatwaves is concerning, especially considering the normal onset of the monsoon over Kerala. While the IMD expects favourable conditions for the monsoon’s onset over Kerala in the next five days, there’s uncertainty about its subsequent progress towards northwest India. The prospect of a rare occurrence where the monsoon arrives in northeast India before Kerala is also being considered.

This combination of forecasts underscores the complex interplay of weather patterns and their implications for various sectors. While the anticipation of above-normal monsoon rainfall brings hope for agriculture, the persistence of heat waves highlights the need for resilience and adaptive strategies. The dynamic nature of meteorological phenomena necessitates vigilance and preparedness to mitigate the impacts of weather variability.