Weather Update: July Likely to See Above-Normal Rainfall, Says IMD

Weather Update: July Likely to See Above-Normal Rainfall, Says IMD

Weather Update: July Likely to See Above-Normal Rainfall, Says IMD

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IMD predicts above-normal July rainfall across most of India, with exceptions in northeast and eastern states.

2 July, 2024

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for July across most parts of India, except for the northeast and eastern states. The exception are parts of western Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand.

While June recorded below-normal rainfall, the IMD’s monthly outlook indicates that July’s rainfall, averaged over the country. It is likely to exceed 106% of the long-period average (LPA) of 280.4 mm. However, below-average rainfall is predicted for north Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.

The IMD also warns of a high possibility of extreme rainfall in Odisha, Karnataka, Haryana, and parts of Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand. Meanwhile, La Nina conditions are expected to develop in the latter half of the monsoon (August-September), the monsoon is likely to intensify. However, El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific expected to remain neutral.

In July minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal. In many parts of the country, except for some areas in the northwest, adjoining central India, and the southeastern peninsula. Maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal in much of northwest and south peninsular India, excluding the west coast.

In June, northwest India experienced its warmest month since 1901. Following it were the east and northeast regions having their fifth warmest June since 1901. The result was that highest number of heatwave days (181 days) in the last 15 years recorded. It surpassed 2010’s record of 177 heatwave days. During this summer, India experienced the second hottest period, recording 536 heatwave days in terms of meteorological sub-divisions, the highest in the last 14 years after 2010’s 578 days.

Alongside the excess heat in June, India also faced a deficit monsoon. Overall rainfall was 11% below normal, marking the seventh lowest in the past 24 years. The northwest region experienced the highest rainfall deficit, followed by the east, northeast, and central India. In contrast, the southern peninsula received 14.2% above-normal rainfall. The subdued rainfall activity was attributed to a weaker Madden Julian Oscillation and the lack of low-pressure system formation over the Bay of Bengal.

The IMD noted a trend of higher probability for above-normal rainfall, especially if June experiences a rainfall deficit.

The IMD’s forecast for above-normal July rainfall brings some optimism for most parts of India, despite the early monsoon deficit and extreme heat experienced in June.