‘Significant rainfall in Maharashtra’s dam catchment areas unlikely before June end’
Significant rainfall in Maharashtra's dam catchment areas unlikely before June end (representational Image )
Independent weather forecasters have indicated that significant rainfall in Maharashtra’s dam catchment areas is unlikely before the last week of June. This view contrasts with the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s prediction of a rain revival in the state after June 20.
According to the IMD-Global Forecast System, “monsoon-style” rains are expected to commence in the Pune ghats and city from June 22-23. An IMD official stated that Pune city might experience light rain until June 21, followed by light to moderate rain on June 22-23. Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated in the ghat areas until June 21, which should benefit the dam catchments.
However, an independent weather forecaster expressed a more cautious outlook. He mentioned that the monsoon remains weak, delaying any significant rise in water levels for dams in Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai, and Nashik until at least June 24. The situation for Pune’s dams is similar, with strong westerly winds for the inland north Konkan to northwest Sahyadri ghats expected to be delayed until June 25-26. He forecasts widespread rainfall exceeding 100-150mm only in the last week of June.
He added that there might be some hope of westerlies aligning from June 19, favouring coastal areas more. North Konkan coast might see increased activity between June 19-21, but any dry air intrusion from the northwest could reduce rainfall. Additionally, a new East-West shear zone developing around June 22-24 could heighten thunderstorm activity, but significant inflows into dams and lakes are unlikely before June 24. He cautioned that long-range forecasts could vary by ±2 days due to changing weather dynamics.
“The wait for an active Monsoon 2024 surge, characterized by no sunshine, temperatures below 30°C, and frequent heavy rain spells, is extended to the last week of June,” he concluded.
